Japan, one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world, may be facing a devastating natural disaster within the next 30 years.
Experts have significantly raised the likelihood of a powerful earthquake striking the Nankai Trough — a deep undersea trench off Japan’s southern coast known for producing some of the country’s most destructive quakes in history.
Photo via The Malaysian Reserve
The Earthquake Research Committee, under the Japanese government, now estimates an 80% chance of a magnitude 8.0 to 9.0 earthquake occurring in this region before 2054. This warning comes as pressure continues to build along the fault line that triggered massive quakes in 1944 and 1946.
Although Japan experiences around 1,500 quakes a year due to its location along the Pacific Ring of Fire, the Nankai Trough poses a particularly dangerous threat. Historically, this area has unleashed major tremors roughly every 100 years, often occurring in pairs — which raises further concern as it has now been nearly eight decades since the last events.
A newly released government report paints a sobering picture of the possible impact. In the worst-case scenario, an earthquake followed by a tsunami could claim close to 298,000 lives, with over 70% of fatalities caused by the tsunami alone. Authorities warn that the tsunami could reach coastal areas in under five minutes — leaving very little time to respond, especially if the disaster happens at night during winter months.
Photo via The Japan Times
Coastal towns such as Kuroshio and Tosashimizu in Kochi Prefecture are among those expected to be hardest hit, with tsunami heights projected to reach up to 34 metres. The projected scale of destruction is staggering: 2.35 million homes destroyed, 950,000 people injured, and up to 12.3 million forced to evacuate.
The economic toll could reach 292 trillion yen (approximately RM9 trillion) — a loss that would severely impact the nation’s economy for years to come.
While the estimated death toll has been slightly reduced from earlier figures, the expanded tsunami flood zone — now 30% larger — underscores the urgency of disaster preparedness.
Japanese authorities continue to stress the importance of early warning systems, evacuation planning, and public education. With the countdown potentially underway, every effort is being made to reduce the risk to human life.
This looming threat serves as a stark reminder that when it comes to natural disasters, readiness can mean the difference between survival and tragedy.
