On Thursday (7 January), Malaysia recorded the highest daily new COVID-19 cases at 2,188, all local cases and 1,103 in Johor.
Photo via CodeBlue
The Ministry of Health warned the public that daily COVID-19 cases would hit 8,000 cases by mid of March if the basic reproduction number (R-nought or R0) of the virus infection increases to 1.2.
Health director-general Tan Sri Dr. Noor Hisham Abdullah recently shared two Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological prediction models of the possible rate of infections in the country when the R0 is at 1.1 and 1.2.
He said that according to the SEIR model, in the current scenario where the R0 infection rate is at 1.1, daily cases would hit 3,000 during the second week of February.
“Attention to daily cases of COVID-19 and the expected projection of cases from 4 January to 31 May 2021 with R0 infection rates at 1.1 and 1.2 in Malaysia,” he said in addition to the two graphs using the different values.
If the R0 remains at 1.1 by the second week of April, Malaysia will see 5,000 daily cases, he added.
Dr. Noor Hisham also shared the second SEIR model with the infection rate at 1.2, where Malaysia can potentially record 8,000 daily cases by the third week of March.
Photo via The Straits Times
However, the graph only goes to a maximum of 10,000 cases, which Malaysia would hit before April.
On Wednesday (6 January), DG Hisham said that the R0 in Malaysia has increased back to 1.1 and added that the authorities’ target to bring down the R0 to 0.5 has not been achieved yet.
He also pointed out that authorities are concerned that the current trend has continuously shown in recent weeks that the cases are increasing.
Not the good news that we were waiting to hear…
Remember to adhere to the SOPs when we’re out and about, maintain physical distancing and wear a face mask!
By: Aishah Akashah Ahadiat
